Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in 2024?
  • 504
  • 192
  • $385,435
This market resolves to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin is reelected as President of Russia in the March 2024 Presidential elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting and official sources like the UN. If the Russian Federation ceases to exist or the President position is eliminated before an election takes place, the market will resolve to "No". If the elections are not complete by May 7, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will also resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market prioritizes credible reporting and official sources over speculation or unofficial information. This market considers only events that occur before an election takes place in March 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 505
  • 96
  • $865

Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0625
-0.2877
0.9487
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0381
-0.2171
0.9718
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0085
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0041
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.018
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 126
  • 96
  • $384,569

Will Putin be reelected?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0030
-0.0564
0.9983
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0315
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0171
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.018
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 504
  • 192
  • $385,435
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0317
-0.1591
0.9741
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0206
-0.1368
0.9851
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0200
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0106
0.9999

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