Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0086 | -0.0970 | 0.9948 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0177 | -0.1429 | 0.9884 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0243 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0208 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | +0.011 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0149 | -0.1301 | 0.9905 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0253 | -0.1733 | 0.9826 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0034 | -0.0603 | 0.9981 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0013 | -0.0373 | 0.9993 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | -0.011 | +0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0117 | -0.1136 | 0.9927 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0215 | -0.1581 | 0.9855 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0020 | -0.0423 | 0.9989 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0290 | 0.9995 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
| Metaculus | D | +0.020 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |