Will a coup take place in Russia before January 2024?
  • 654
  • 1,404
  • $842
A coup or regime change in Russia could significantly impact global events, particularly the 2022 military conflict in Ukraine. To resolve as Yes, at least six of ten major news sources must publish reports claiming a "coup" or "regime change." However, if Russian President Vladimir Putin (or a successor) voluntarily resigns without coercion, that outcome will not be counted. A voluntary resignation is determined by three Metaculus admins, who assess whether the event was coerced. The time frame for resolution spans from March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022JulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 655
  • 135
  • $842

Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0007
-0.0261
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0074
-0.0901
0.9956
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0352
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0237
0.9997
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.030
+0.006
  • Metaculus
  • 652
  • 1,269

Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0214
-0.1581
0.9856
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0188
-0.1473
0.9876
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0344
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0209
0.9998
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.030
-0.006
  • Overall
  • 654
  • 1,404
  • $842
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0110
-0.0921
0.9926
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0131
-0.1187
0.9916
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0348
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0223
0.9997

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