Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0032 | -0.0580 | 0.9982 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0200 | -0.1524 | 0.9867 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0423 | 0.9991 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0139 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.006 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0037 | -0.0628 | 0.9979 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0279 | 0.9996 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0055 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.006 | -0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0044 | -0.0680 | 0.9975 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0118 | -0.1076 | 0.9923 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0351 | 0.9993 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0097 | 0.9999 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |