Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0019 | -0.0445 | 0.9990 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0038 | -0.0637 | 0.9978 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0019 | -0.0445 | 0.9990 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0418 | 0.9991 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.006 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0027 | -0.0538 | 0.9985 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0135 | -0.1237 | 0.9914 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0010 | -0.0324 | 0.9995 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0141 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.011 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0943 | 0.9951 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0114 | -0.1129 | 0.9929 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0036 | -0.0619 | 0.9980 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0171 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.015 | -0.073 | -0.011 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0042 | -0.0642 | 0.9975 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0096 | -0.1001 | 0.9941 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0022 | -0.0463 | 0.9988 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0243 | 0.9996 |
| Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.013 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.021 |
| Polymarket | F | +0.075 |