Ukrainian forces have advanced 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast, capturing over 100 square kilometers within days, with the situation stabilizing after 5 days. The outcome remains uncertain. To determine if Ukraine will hold Kursk through 2024, maps and reports from credible sources such as DeepStateMap and the Institute for the Study of War will be used to track territorial control. Control is defined as Ukrainian forces actively holding territory in the Kursk Oblast. If Ukrainian forces no longer control any territory in the region by December 1, 2024, the market will resolve positively; otherwise, it will resolve negatively.