Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1521 | -0.4943 | 0.8425 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0695 | -0.3059 | 0.9415 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0133 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.005 | -0.010 | -0.006 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0799 | -0.3323 | 0.9303 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0669 | -0.2992 | 0.9442 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0212 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0106 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.010 | +0.006 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1160 | -0.4133 | 0.8864 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0682 | -0.3025 | 0.9429 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0156 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0120 | 0.9999 |
| Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.013 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.021 |
| Polymarket | F | +0.075 |