Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.1657 | -0.5227 | 0.8244 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2050 | -0.6029 | 0.7704 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3581 | -0.9123 | 0.5572 |
| Relative Score | A+ | -0.040 | +0.083 | +0.054 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4761 | -1.1712 | 0.4098 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2825 | -0.7582 | 0.6613 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4761 | -1.1712 | 0.4098 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.040 | -0.083 | -0.054 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3209 | -0.8469 | 0.6171 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2437 | -0.6805 | 0.7159 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4171 | -1.0418 | 0.4835 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
| Metaculus | D | +0.020 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |