Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3721 | -0.9416 | 0.5387 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1621 | -0.5153 | 0.8292 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.1024 | -0.3857 | 0.9048 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.006 | +0.018 | +0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3540 | -0.9039 | 0.5627 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1126 | -0.4089 | 0.8926 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3782 | -0.9545 | 0.5306 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.006 | -0.018 | -0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3631 | -0.9227 | 0.5507 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1374 | -0.4621 | 0.8609 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2403 | -0.6701 | 0.7177 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
| Metaculus | D | +0.020 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |