Will the Democratic Party (Lee Jae-Myung) win the South Korean presidential election?
  • 56
  • 1,115
  • $2,419,959
The 2025 South Korean Presidential Election is scheduled for June 3, 2025. Lee Jae-Myung from the Democratic Party is currently leading with approximately 50% support in recent surveys. The election will be won by the candidate officially declared the winner by the National Election Commission. Other candidates include Hong Joon-pyo from the People Power Party, Oh Se-hoon as mayor of Seoul and a member of the PPP, Kim Moon-soo from the PPP known for his populist stance, Han Dong-hoon as a younger PPP politician, Lee Jun-seok who was removed from his position in 2022 following controversies, and Ahn Cheol-soo who has run in previous elections. The political landscape in South Korea is dynamic with both major parties facing internal challenges and public opinion evolving.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability13Apr20274May1118251Jun

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 54
  • $696,910

Who will win the South Korean presidential election? | :: Democratic Party

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0198
-0.1517
0.9868
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0400
-0.2231
0.9701
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.020
-0.002
  • Manifold
  • 57
  • 44
  • $1,072

Who will win the 2025 South Korean Presidential Election? | Lee Jae-Myung

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0407
-0.2253
0.9695
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0378
-0.2163
0.9720
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0740
-0.3176
0.9367
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0063
-0.0829
0.9963
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.003
-0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 24
  • 1,071
  • $1,721,977

Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0043
-0.0682
0.9975
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0272
-0.1803
0.9810
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.008
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 56
  • 1,115
  • $2,419,959
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0188
-0.1362
0.9867
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0207
-0.1454
0.9855
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0471
-0.2403
0.9626
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0056
-0.0778
0.9967

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