This prediction is based on the likelihood that North Korea will launch a military offensive against South Korea in 2024. The event would need to meet specific criteria: it must involve an offensive intended to establish control over any part of South Korea by December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET. Official confirmation from North Korea, South Korea, the UN, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council will serve as the primary resolution source, with consensus on credible reporting also being considered. The outcome is expected to be determined by a unified report from these sources, which would then resolve the market accordingly. The resolution time frame and criteria for official confirmation are aligned across different platforms, indicating consistency in the event's definition.