China has repeatedly asserted a claim to Taiwan since 1949, leading to tense relations between the two countries and fears of a Chinese invasion. A resolution is expected when there are 10 or more deaths among overtly flagged members of China's armed forces or Taiwan's armed forces caused by confrontation with the other nation, including accidents such as vehicle collisions. For a market to resolve "Yes", China must initiate a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Official confirmation from China, Taiwan, or the UN will be used as evidence, but a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered in resolving the market. The resolution criteria are strict and require direct military action, with no friendly fire incidents counted towards the total.