Will there be armed conflict between North Korea and South Korea in 2024?
  • 78
  • 2,306
  • $1,128,181
This market predicts whether there will be a military encounter between North Korea and South Korea between October 13, 2024, and December 31, 2024. A "military encounter" is defined as the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or direct gunfire between the two countries' military forces. Non-violent actions like balloon deployments or audio broadcasts will not be considered a "Yes" resolution. The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability20Oct273Nov1017241Dec8152229

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 75
  • 56
  • $157

North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0069
-0.0868
0.9959
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0072
-0.0885
0.9957
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0062
-0.0820
0.9964
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0310
0.9995
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.009
+0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 79
  • 2,250
  • $1,128,024

North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0156
-0.1335
0.9899
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0105
-0.1082
0.9935
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0177
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.009
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 78
  • 2,306
  • $1,128,181
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0113
-0.1102
0.9929
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0088
-0.0983
0.9946
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0052
-0.0746
0.9970
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0243
0.9997

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