Several platforms have created markets predicting whether Russia will place a nuclear weapon in Earth orbit by January 2025. The markets resolve based on evidence presented at the end of 2024, with clear proof of a nuclear weapon resolving yes immediately. A nuclear weapon is defined as one intended to cause significant damage or loss of life via radiation from a prompt nuclear fission or fusion reaction. Markets differ in their resolution criteria and timeframes, with some requiring convincing evidence before closing, while others resolve based on credible reporting. In general, markets focus on placing nuclear weapons in orbit above 50 miles above sea level to be considered successful resolutions.