Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
  • 367
  • 614
  • $136
This market predicts whether a serious radiation incident will occur at any Ukrainian nuclear plant before 2025. The resolution criteria is based on an accident report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of level 5, 6 or 7 on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale. The situation has been a concern since Russia's occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in February 2022, with some reactors being taken offline or put online as needed. In June 2023, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of plotting to stage an attack on the plant.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 368
  • 88
  • $136

[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0055
-0.0773
0.9968
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0043
-0.0681
0.9975
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0025
-0.0509
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0204
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.003
+0.000
  • Metaculus
  • 366
  • 526

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0043
-0.0679
0.9975
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0051
-0.0744
0.9970
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0033
-0.0593
0.9981
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0021
-0.0465
0.9989
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 367
  • 614
  • $136
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0047
-0.0712
0.9973
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0029
-0.0551
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0334
0.9993

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