Israel will carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for nuclear material or technology between October 1 and December 31, 2024. A resolution to "Yes" requires an attack on facilities such as reactors, enrichment centers, uranium mines, or research centers located in Iran. Cyber attacks, sanctions, diplomatic actions, downed missile strikes, or those that miss their targets will not be considered. The market's outcome is determined by official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, with credible reporting providing additional context. A "Yes" resolution implies a physical attack with missiles, drones, or ground operations targeting Iranian nuclear sites between the specified dates.