Will the US take military action against Iran before July 2025?
  • 13
  • 4,570
  • $29,919,940
This market resolves to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Iranian embassies or consulates, between March 31 and June 30, 2025. A "military action" is defined as any use of force executed by the US military that is officially acknowledged by the government. This includes airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions, but excludes cyber attacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions. If a "Yes" resolution is met prior to June 30, 2025, this market will resolve immediately. The market resolves to "No" otherwise.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability5Jun79111315171921

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 7
  • 497
  • $2,918

US bombs Iran in June 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2034
-0.5997
0.7726
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2921
-0.7775
0.6478
Relative Score
D
+0.022
-0.046
-0.030
  • Polymarket
  • 14
  • 4,073
  • $29,917,022

US military action against Iran before July?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4363
-1.0803
0.4572
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4150
-1.0335
0.4834
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.3181
-0.8301
0.6116
Relative Score
A
-0.022
+0.046
+0.030
  • Overall
  • 13
  • 4,570
  • $29,919,940
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.3199
-0.8400
0.6149
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.3536
-0.9055
0.5656
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.3181
-0.8301
0.6116

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