The United States has a history of employing military conscription during large conflicts, with the last instance being the Vietnam War in 1973. If the country enters another significant war, it may resume conscripting soldiers again. The outcome to be predicted is whether any military personnel are conscripted for service in the US before January 1st, 2025, including those in the Coast Guard and excluding Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation. A resolution of yes would depend on a single instance of mandatory military service being implemented prior to the specified date, while a negative outcome would require no such conscription to occur. The market's focus is on whether the US will reinstate some form of military draft by 2025.