Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0075 | -0.0908 | 0.9955 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0154 | -0.1326 | 0.9901 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0056 | -0.0777 | 0.9968 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0049 | -0.0726 | 0.9972 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.002 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0736 | -0.3165 | 0.9371 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0442 | -0.2359 | 0.9664 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0028 | -0.0541 | 0.9985 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0020 | -0.0456 | 0.9989 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.002 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0406 | -0.2037 | 0.9663 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0298 | -0.1843 | 0.9782 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0042 | -0.0659 | 0.9976 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0034 | -0.0591 | 0.9980 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.048 |
| Manifold | D | +0.023 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.023 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |