Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4189 | -1.0419 | 0.4786 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1813 | -0.5548 | 0.8033 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2774 | -0.7479 | 0.6685 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0792 | -0.3305 | 0.9311 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.006 | -0.014 | -0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2162 | -0.6255 | 0.7548 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1572 | -0.5049 | 0.8358 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2970 | -0.7875 | 0.6409 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0625 | -0.2877 | 0.9487 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.006 | +0.014 | +0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3176 | -0.8337 | 0.6167 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1692 | -0.5299 | 0.8195 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2872 | -0.7677 | 0.6547 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0708 | -0.3091 | 0.9399 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.019 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.011 |
| Polymarket | B | -0.005 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.048 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |