Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2500 | -0.6931 | 0.7071 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1286 | -0.4440 | 0.8729 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1521 | -0.4943 | 0.8425 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.010 | -0.018 | -0.015 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8281 | -2.4079 | 0.0984 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4534 | -1.1189 | 0.4364 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1347 | -0.4574 | 0.8651 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.1779 | -0.5478 | 0.8079 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.008 | -0.017 | -0.012 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0538 | -0.2639 | 0.9573 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0849 | -0.3445 | 0.9248 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0414 | -0.2275 | 0.9689 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2657 | -0.7247 | 0.6848 |
| Relative Score | A+ | -0.048 | +0.107 | +0.056 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3773 | -1.1217 | 0.5876 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2223 | -0.6358 | 0.7447 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.1094 | -0.3931 | 0.8922 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1535 | -0.4706 | 0.8273 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.000 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.010 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.008 |
| Manifold | D | +0.023 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.023 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |