Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?
  • 341
  • 705
  • $349,344
A federal law addressing deepfake technology and its societal impact is enacted before 2025. This includes legislation that restricts or bans sharing deepfakes that infringe on an individual's rights, such as shared nudes without consent. Resolution criteria include the production of official government statements, laws passed by Congress, or a consensus of credible reporting on the topic. The market offers several possible scenarios for federal regulations addressing deepfake technology: restricted use for approved applications, mandatory disclosure requirements, civil liability laws, licensing for use, and total ban. If a law is passed that encompasses multiple scenarios, each scenario will resolve "Yes".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Metaculus
  • 341
  • 70

Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0099
-0.1050
0.9939
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0065
-0.0842
0.9962
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0040
-0.0652
0.9977
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0411
0.9991
Relative Score
A
-0.024
+0.075
+0.023
  • Polymarket
  • 340
  • 635
  • $349,344

Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1722
-0.5361
0.8156
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0391
-0.2203
0.9709
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0075
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0131
0.9999
Relative Score
D
+0.024
-0.075
-0.023
  • Overall
  • 341
  • 705
  • $349,344
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0911
-0.3205
0.9048
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0228
-0.1523
0.9835
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0020
-0.0364
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0271
0.9995

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