Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0030 | -0.0563 | 0.9983 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0062 | -0.0821 | 0.9964 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | +0.001 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0108 | -0.1095 | 0.9934 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0234 | -0.1659 | 0.9841 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0029 | -0.0555 | 0.9984 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0355 | 0.9993 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | -0.004 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0020 | -0.0460 | 0.9989 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0026 | -0.0527 | 0.9985 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0248 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0050 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | -0.001 | -0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0053 | -0.0706 | 0.9969 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0107 | -0.1002 | 0.9930 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0369 | 0.9992 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0169 | 0.9998 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.000 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.010 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.008 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.048 |
| Manifold | D | +0.023 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.023 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |