Will the US ban TikTok before January 2026?
  • 416
  • 574
  • $338,368
A ban on TikTok by December 31, 2025, has been imposed through a US federal law, policy, or court system. The resolution criteria include the app being banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States before the end of 2025. A ban mandates are considered effective if they have gone into effect within this timeframe. If TikTok is sold to another entity that comes into compliance with US laws and regulations, a "No" resolution will be recorded. Information from credible sources, including the US federal government, will be used to determine the outcome of the market.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 84
  • $96,394

Will TikTok be banned by December 31, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2601
-0.7133
0.6928
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2997
-0.7929
0.6371
30 Days Before Close
D
0.3025
-0.7985
0.6332
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0784
-0.3285
0.9320
Relative Score
A+
-0.044
+0.099
+0.055
  • Manifold
  • 417
  • 142
  • $664

Will TikTok be banned in the US by the end of 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.3242
-0.8425
0.6032
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.3551
-0.9062
0.5612
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0130
0.9999
Relative Score
F
+0.044
-0.099
-0.054
  • Polymarket
  • 19
  • 432
  • $241,310

TikTok banned in 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1640
-0.5192
0.8267
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2116
-0.6162
0.7612
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0702
-0.3079
0.9407
Relative Score
D
+0.022
-0.044
-0.029
  • Overall
  • 416
  • 574
  • $338,368
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2494
-0.6917
0.7076
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2888
-0.7718
0.6532
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1520
-0.4196
0.8162
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0496
-0.2165
0.9575

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