Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
  • 298
  • 638
  • $132,004
OpenAI has announced an AI video model, Sora, which raises questions about its deployment. A market resolves YES if the model becomes available to any users without restrictions, including paid or free access, as long as it's not invite-only only. If released through OpenAI's pro subscription, a YES resolution is also possible. Additionally, a release of a video model with similar quality to Sora will count towards a YES resolution, even if it comes in smaller versions like Sora Turbo. The market resolves NO if the public release of Sora does not occur before 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 213
  • $61,410

Sora released to public before 2025? | Before 2025

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4096
-1.0217
0.4903
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2916
-0.7766
0.6484
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6400
-1.6094
0.2425
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7396
-1.9661
0.1607
Relative Score
C
+0.003
+0.007
-0.007
  • Manifold
  • 299
  • 326
  • $1,239

Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1130
-0.4096
0.8922
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1996
-0.5920
0.7779
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7222
-1.8961
0.1740
7 Days Before Close
F
0.9108
-3.0867
0.0478
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
-0.010
+0.005
  • Polymarket
  • 4
  • 312
  • $69,355

OpenAI Sora public release in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0506
-0.2549
0.9603
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0462
-0.2421
0.9645
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.011
-0.003
  • Overall
  • 298
  • 638
  • $132,004
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1911
-0.5621
0.7809
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1792
-0.5369
0.7969
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6811
-1.7528
0.2083
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8252
-2.5264
0.1042

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