Will OpenAI lose the top LLM Leaderboard spot in 2024?
  • 173
  • 8
  • $157,163
This market resolves when OpenAI is no longer ranked as the top Large Language Model (LLM) before December 31, 2024. The outcome will be considered resolved if it is known and unambiguous, and users are encouraged to resolve this market before then. Trustworthy-ish users can request early resolution or report issues by pinging @jskf. Resolution criteria include OpenAI no longer being the top LLM before the specified date, while any other outcome does not resolve the market. If this market resolves in the affirmative, it will automatically apply its resolution to an equivalent original market on a different platform.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAug

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 173
  • $157,121

OpenAI no longer top LLM in 2024? | In 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1156
-0.4155
0.8890
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1834
-0.5590
0.8004
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1849
-0.5621
0.7983
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1444
-0.4780
0.8526
Relative Score
D
+0.017
-0.033
-0.026
  • Manifold
  • 286
  • 8
  • $42

[Kalshi] OpenAI no longer top LLM in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.1583
-0.5074
0.8342
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0657
-0.2962
0.9454
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1583
-0.5074
0.8342
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1583
-0.5074
0.8342
Relative Score
A
-0.017
+0.033
+0.026
  • Overall
  • 173
  • 8
  • $157,163
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.1370
-0.4614
0.8616
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1245
-0.4276
0.8729
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1716
-0.5348
0.8163
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1514
-0.4927
0.8434

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