Will Google have the top LLM on LMArena on February 1, 2025?
  • 39
  • 1,821
  • $355,680
This market resolves to "Yes" if Google's AI model has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of January 31, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the top score, the resolution will be based on alphabetical order of the companies' names, with "Google" resolving to "Yes". The leaderboards source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, which becomes the default if unavailable. The market remains open until the leaderboard returns online and resolves accordingly. If it's permanently unavailable, resolution falls back to another unspecified source.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability29Dec5Jan121926

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 10
  • $41,171

What will be the top AI model this month?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0136
-0.1240
0.9914
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0256
-0.1744
0.9823
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.044
-0.005
  • Polymarket
  • 40
  • 1,821
  • $314,509

Will Google have the top AI model on January 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0132
-0.1222
0.9917
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0286
-0.1852
0.9799
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1560
-0.5025
0.8373
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0207
0.9998
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.044
+0.005
  • Overall
  • 39
  • 1,821
  • $355,680
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0151
-0.1307
0.9903
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0211
-0.1546
0.9857
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1560
-0.5025
0.8373
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0130
-0.0975
0.9911

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