Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0153 | -0.1321 | 0.9902 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0130 | -0.1212 | 0.9918 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0153 | -0.1321 | 0.9902 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0019 | -0.0450 | 0.9989 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.005 | -0.038 | -0.004 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0028 | -0.0547 | 0.9984 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0052 | -0.0747 | 0.9970 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0122 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0117 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.038 | +0.004 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0091 | -0.0934 | 0.9943 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0091 | -0.0980 | 0.9944 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0077 | -0.0721 | 0.9951 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0010 | -0.0284 | 0.9994 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.022 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | D | +0.022 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.018 |
| Manifold | D | +0.017 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.002 |