Will GPT-5 be released before January 2025?
  • 656
  • 5,346
  • $979,181
If GPT-5 is publicly released before the end of December 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A closed beta or private access does not suffice for this market's resolution, with products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar not counted. The primary source of resolution is official information from OpenAI, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting. Any deviation from the expected naming scheme may affect the market's resolution criteria.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 385
  • $192,452

Will GPT-5 be released by December 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2217
-0.6364
0.7471
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.009
+0.000
  • Manifold
  • 655
  • 3,359
  • $32,811

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5315
-1.3057
0.3484
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2590
-0.7111
0.6944
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0039
-0.0648
0.9978
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0173
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.009
-0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 154
  • 1,987
  • $753,918

GPT-5 released in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0506
-0.2549
0.9603
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0392
-0.2206
0.9709
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0020
-0.0455
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0080
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.002
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 656
  • 5,346
  • $979,181
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2774
-0.7512
0.6720
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1733
-0.5227
0.8041
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0025
-0.0504
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0152
0.9999

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