Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0131 | -0.1217 | 0.9917 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0123 | -0.1175 | 0.9923 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0256 | -0.1743 | 0.9823 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0104 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.014 | +0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0223 | -0.1617 | 0.9849 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0273 | -0.1805 | 0.9810 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0183 | -0.1454 | 0.9880 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0097 | -0.1036 | 0.9941 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.014 | -0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0177 | -0.1417 | 0.9883 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0198 | -0.1490 | 0.9867 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0220 | -0.1599 | 0.9852 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0049 | -0.0570 | 0.9970 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.002 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |