Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023?
  • 91
  • 187
  • $571
A platform is offering a contest where participants can submit their predictions about whether OpenAI will publish a paper or webpage announcing the release of GPT-4, with criteria for resolution including showcasing examples of what it can do and offering some form of use to outside parties. The outcome depends on Scott Alexander's exclusive authority in his 2023 prediction contest. Another platform is focused solely on the event, without reference to any additional context or rules. A third option takes a more general stance, with no specific criteria for resolution.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability25Dec1Jan81522295Feb1219265Mar1219

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0131
-0.1217
0.9917
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0123
-0.1175
0.9923
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0256
-0.1743
0.9823
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0104
0.9999
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.014
+0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0223
-0.1617
0.9849
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0273
-0.1805
0.9810
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0183
-0.1454
0.9880
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0097
-0.1036
0.9941
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.014
-0.003
  • Overall
  • 91
  • 187
  • $571
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0177
-0.1417
0.9883
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0198
-0.1490
0.9867
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0220
-0.1599
0.9852
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0049
-0.0570
0.9970

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