Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0460 | -0.2414 | 0.9647 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0208 | -0.1558 | 0.9861 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0029 | -0.0554 | 0.9984 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0029 | -0.0554 | 0.9984 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | -0.005 | -0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0253 | 0.9997 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0015 | -0.0393 | 0.9992 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0111 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0025 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.005 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0233 | -0.1333 | 0.9822 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0112 | -0.0976 | 0.9926 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0332 | 0.9992 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0289 | 0.9992 |
| Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.013 |
| Manifold | D | +0.015 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.019 |
| Polymarket | D | +0.019 |