Will any new country join NATO in 2023?
  • 107
  • 524
  • $1,464
This question considers whether a new country will join NATO in 2023, with Sweden and Finland's accession to the alliance counted as a new country. The outcome is determined solely by Scott Alexander's judgment, based on his exclusive authority for resolving this specific prediction contest. Predictions are considered valid only for tracking purposes on Metaculus, with no evaluation by Scott Alexander. Related questions also exist on Metaculus, including those about state withdrawals and NATO membership in 2025. The resolution criteria is straightforward: if Sweden and Finland complete the accession process, it counts as a new country joining NATO.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023FebMarApr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 108
  • 397
  • $1,464

11. Will any new country join NATO in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0583
-0.2764
0.9529
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0286
-0.1853
0.9799
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0168
-0.1390
0.9891
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0028
-0.0547
0.9984
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.010
-0.003
  • Metaculus
  • 104
  • 127

In 2023 will any new country join NATO?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0342
-0.2044
0.9752
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0249
-0.1716
0.9829
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0164
-0.1369
0.9894
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0032
-0.0584
0.9982
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.010
+0.003
  • Overall
  • 107
  • 524
  • $1,464
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0463
-0.2404
0.9641
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0267
-0.1784
0.9814
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0166
-0.1379
0.9892
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983

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