Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine in 2023?
  • 376
  • 411
  • $584
We will judge casualties for other wars based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. The midpoint of a range will be taken if one is offered. If there is no easy way to determine which Ukraine casualties happened in 2022 vs. 2023, the current total of 225,216 will be subtracted from the best available end-of-2023 number. For other wars, a similar method will be used, with credible third-party estimates reserved if an identical methodology cannot be applied. The resolution authority for this question lies with Scott Alexander's judgment in his 2023 prediction contest.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 376
  • 185
  • $584

13. Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0264
-0.1774
0.9817
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0233
-0.1655
0.9842
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.034
-0.007
  • Metaculus
  • 375
  • 226

In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0026
-0.0528
0.9985
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0088
-0.0984
0.9947
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0198
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0146
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.034
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 411
  • $584
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0145
-0.1151
0.9901
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0160
-0.1320
0.9894
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0026
-0.0462
0.9985
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0019
-0.0382
0.9989

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