Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? This question aims to ascertain the probability of an armed conflict of at least medium magnitude in the region. The resolution criteria require at least 3 credible news outlets or governmental organizations (BBC, Reuters, the UN, EU, NATO, etc.) to report combatant casualties exceeding 500 before January 1, 2025, with multiple conflicts being considered if their sum exceeds 500. The Balkan region includes all countries south of the Danube-Sava rivers, excluding Turkey and Romania. If an armed conflict occurs, its casualty count will be included in determining the resolution criteria.