Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1547 | -0.4997 | 0.8391 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.1986 | -0.5899 | 0.7794 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.3820 | -0.9624 | 0.5258 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1521 | -0.4943 | 0.8425 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.090 | -0.210 | -0.111 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1183 | -0.4216 | 0.8856 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1672 | -0.5257 | 0.8224 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0367 | -0.2126 | 0.9731 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0463 | -0.2423 | 0.9644 |
| Relative Score | S | -0.090 | +0.210 | +0.111 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1365 | -0.4606 | 0.8624 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1829 | -0.5578 | 0.8009 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2093 | -0.5875 | 0.7494 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0992 | -0.3683 | 0.9035 |
| Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.013 |