Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2025 | -0.5978 | 0.7740 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1844 | -0.5612 | 0.7989 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0124 | -0.1181 | 0.9922 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0092 | -0.1006 | 0.9944 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.036 | +0.090 | +0.043 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0720 | -0.3124 | 0.9389 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1114 | -0.4061 | 0.8941 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1534 | -0.4970 | 0.8408 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.036 | -0.090 | -0.043 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1373 | -0.4551 | 0.8564 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1479 | -0.4836 | 0.8465 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0829 | -0.3076 | 0.9165 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0074 | -0.0893 | 0.9956 |
| Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.013 |