Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0069 | -0.0866 | 0.9959 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0266 | -0.1779 | 0.9816 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0478 | -0.2466 | 0.9631 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0032 | -0.0580 | 0.9982 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.001 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0100 | -0.1053 | 0.9939 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0260 | -0.1760 | 0.9820 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0484 | -0.2486 | 0.9624 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0126 | -0.1193 | 0.9921 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.001 | +0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0084 | -0.0960 | 0.9949 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0263 | -0.1769 | 0.9818 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0481 | -0.2476 | 0.9627 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0079 | -0.0886 | 0.9951 |
| Manifold | D | +0.015 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.019 |
| Polymarket | D | +0.019 |