Will Finland join NATO before 2024?
  • 396
  • 964
  • $370
Finland has moved towards cooperation with NATO, and the country's neutrality during the Cold War is seen as a passing phase. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought Finland and Sweden closer to joining NATO. Analysts suggest that membership applications can be processed in a short time span if NATO extends an invitation. For this question, an official statement by NATO declaring Finland's membership and its ratification by member states will resolve it positively before January 1st, 2024. The resolution criteria includes the membership being "officially recognized" by NATO.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022JulOctJan2023Apr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0069
-0.0866
0.9959
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0266
-0.1779
0.9816
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0478
-0.2466
0.9631
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0032
-0.0580
0.9982
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.001
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0100
-0.1053
0.9939
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0260
-0.1760
0.9820
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0484
-0.2486
0.9624
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0126
-0.1193
0.9921
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.001
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 396
  • 964
  • $370
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0084
-0.0960
0.9949
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0263
-0.1769
0.9818
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0481
-0.2476
0.9627
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0079
-0.0886
0.9951

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