Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?
  • 1,786
  • 245
  • $8,504
The market is focused on whether the federal minimum wage in the United States will increase before January 1, 2025. The resolution criteria for a positive outcome is that at least three reliable media outlets report an increase in the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to any amount by January 1st, 2025. A negative outcome is resolved if no such reports are made. This market can be resolved at any time and its resolution will be automatically applied once the original market resolves.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability20212022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 230
  • $8,347

Will the minimum wage be increased by 2025? | Before Jan 1, 2025

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0027
-0.0529
0.9985
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
A
-0.023
+0.086
+0.021
  • Manifold
  • 422
  • 17
  • $157

[Metaculus] Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0940
-0.3662
0.9145
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0565
-0.2715
0.9546
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0021
-0.0465
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0166
-0.1380
0.9892
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.013
+0.008
  • Metaculus
  • 1,787
  • 228

Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.3104
-0.8146
0.6222
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.3064
-0.8063
0.6279
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0076
-0.0914
0.9955
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0075
-0.0905
0.9955
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.029
-0.010
  • Overall
  • 1,786
  • 245
  • $8,504
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.1354
-0.4072
0.8453
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1219
-0.3769
0.8603
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0033
-0.0493
0.9981
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0082
-0.0829
0.9949

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