Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?
  • 42
  • 994
  • $229
The US government has already begun taking extraordinary measures to avoid default on its debt obligations. A suspension of the debt ceiling was last implemented in June 2023 but expired in January 2025. The Treasury Secretary notified Congress that extraordinary measures would continue through March 14, 2025. If a law is enacted to increase or suspend the debt limit before March 17, 2025, Eastern Time, the market will resolve as Yes. Any increase to the debt limit qualifies, and only an enacted law is sufficient; attempts by other means are immaterial.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability9Feb16232Mar916

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 31
  • 80
  • $229

Will the US debt ceiling be raised or suspended before March 17, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9924
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0086
-0.0974
0.9948
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0065
-0.0838
0.9962
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.005
-0.001
  • Metaculus
  • 42
  • 914

Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0091
-0.1005
0.9945
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0215
-0.1587
0.9855
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0094
-0.1019
0.9943
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0044
-0.0688
0.9975
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.005
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 42
  • 994
  • $229
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0106
-0.1085
0.9935
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0151
-0.1281
0.9902
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0094
-0.1019
0.9943
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0054
-0.0763
0.9968

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