If any of the three major credit ratings agencies downgrade U.S. credit by December 31, 2024, then yes, U.S. credit will be downgraded or defaults. The resolution is triggered by a downgrade by any one of the agencies: Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch. Downgrade means an overall change in the agency's outlook to negative or a reduction in its rating on a scale used by all three agencies. To qualify, the downgrade must be made after September 2023 and take effect before January 2025, but no specific resolution time is stated. The event's occurrence determines market outcome: if U.S. credit is downgraded, the result is yes, otherwise it is no.