Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0144 | -0.1278 | 0.9908 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0157 | -0.1338 | 0.9899 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | -0.001 | -0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0224 | -0.1623 | 0.9848 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0198 | -0.1517 | 0.9868 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0009 | -0.0307 | 0.9995 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0009 | -0.0307 | 0.9995 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0184 | -0.1450 | 0.9878 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0178 | -0.1428 | 0.9884 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0255 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0255 | 0.9997 |
| Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |