Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0049 | -0.0726 | 0.9972 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0066 | -0.0848 | 0.9961 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.011 | +0.053 | +0.008 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0191 | -0.1486 | 0.9874 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0246 | -0.1707 | 0.9831 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0183 | -0.1454 | 0.9880 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0183 | -0.1454 | 0.9880 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.011 | -0.053 | -0.008 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0120 | -0.1106 | 0.9923 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0156 | -0.1278 | 0.9896 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0096 | -0.0879 | 0.9938 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0092 | -0.0777 | 0.9940 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |