Will Argentina dollarize its economy before January 2025?
  • 408
  • 761
  • $468,169
Argentina is exploring the possibility of adopting the US dollar as its official currency. The proposal, which has gained traction among some politicians, aims to alleviate inflation and potentially dismantle the central bank. If Argentina officially adopts the dollar before the end of 2024, a market will resolve in favor of "Yes." Resolution criteria include not just announcements of intention but actual implementation and replacement of the peso as the country's sole legal tender or pegged currency. The feasibility and potential risks of such a move are debated among economists and analysts.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 399
  • $98,256

Will Argentina dollarize its economy by Dec 31, 2024? | Before 2025

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0059
-0.0800
0.9966
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.012
+0.000
  • Manifold
  • 316
  • 41
  • $77

Will Argentina dollarize its economy before the end of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0201
-0.1529
0.9866
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0129
-0.1204
0.9919
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0021
-0.0467
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0021
-0.0467
0.9989
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.003
+0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 348
  • 720
  • $369,836

Will Argentina dollarize in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0068
-0.0862
0.9960
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0106
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0050
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.009
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 408
  • 761
  • $468,169
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0098
-0.0976
0.9938
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0085
-0.0955
0.9948
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0224
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0240
0.9995

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