Will a new nuclear reactor be approved before January 2025?
  • 433
  • 11
  • $45,236
A new nuclear reactor is expected to be approved for construction and operation by December 31, 2024. The resolution criteria vary depending on the platform: some require approval before 2025, while others do not have a specific year constraint. A combination of regulatory actions, including licensing and permits, will determine the outcome. If these requirements are met, a new nuclear reactor is expected to be approved by the specified deadline. These predictions reflect confidence in regulatory processes and government action by December 31, 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 434
  • $45,223

Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2024? | By Dec 31, 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0400
-0.2231
0.9701
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0266
-0.1779
0.9816
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.004
-0.002
  • Manifold
  • 288
  • 11
  • $13

[Kalshi] Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0184
-0.1457
0.9879
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0224
-0.1619
0.9849
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0114
-0.1129
0.9929
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0322
0.9995
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.004
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 433
  • 11
  • $45,236
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0292
-0.1844
0.9790
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0245
-0.1699
0.9832
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0075
-0.0874
0.9955
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0313
0.9995

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