The risk of China invading Taiwan before the end of 2023 is high. Military activity in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea has increased, with China portraying its operations as a pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. A number of factors could trigger an armed conflict between Taiwan and China, including real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty or the warming of US-Taiwan relations. The markets are open to a resolution where either China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan or there is at least one credible report of an exchange of weapon fire between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before January 1, 2024. Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the UN, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council would be required for a market to resolve "Yes".