Will Donald Trump be 2024 TIME Person of the Year?
  • 405
  • 2,589
  • $1,039,693
If Donald Trump is named as Time's Person of the Year for 2024 alone or in conjunction with a group that explicitly names him, then yes. The resolution criteria consider whether Trump is named as the Person of the Year, either alone or part of a group. If multiple persons win, all those explicitly listed are considered within the payout criterion, while conceptually linked entities not named as individuals do not qualify. For example, if Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the Person of the Year, only their individual strikes would be considered, but Trump's strike would resolve to yes since he is named in the market. The market resolves based on Time's cover, with other webpages differing from it being disregarded.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 45
  • $533,525

Will Donald Trump be Time Person of the Year in 2024? | Donald Trump

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0441
-0.2357
0.9664
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0607
-0.2828
0.9505
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0324
-0.1985
0.9767
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0484
-0.2485
0.9624
Relative Score
A
-0.032
+0.076
+0.038
  • Manifold
  • 406
  • 2,012
  • $29,544

Who will be Time Magazine's 2024 Person of the Year? | Donald Trump

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6069
-1.5097
0.2729
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5276
-1.2960
0.3525
30 Days Before Close
C
0.1024
-0.3857
0.9048
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0530
-0.2615
0.9581
Relative Score
D-
+0.032
-0.076
-0.038
  • Polymarket
  • 7
  • 577
  • $476,623

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0400
-0.2231
0.9701
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0447
-0.2375
0.9659
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.025
-0.003
  • Overall
  • 405
  • 2,589
  • $1,039,693
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2303
-0.6562
0.7365
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2110
-0.6055
0.7563
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0674
-0.2921
0.9408
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0507
-0.2550
0.9603

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