Will Apple announce a foldable phone before January 2025?
  • 435
  • 10
  • $30,116
These markets are predicting whether Apple will unveil a foldable smartphone by the end of 2024. The resolution criteria for one such market is that if Apple has made an official announcement about the product before January 1, 2025, it counts as a "Yes" outcome. Another similar market does not provide explicit resolution criteria but implies that the event must occur between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2024 itself for it to be counted. A third equivalent market is structured similarly to the first but includes a different resolution condition - if Apple has made an official announcement about the product by January 1, 2025, then the "Yes" outcome counts. The markets are focused on whether Apple makes a formal public statement or announcement regarding its plans for a foldable phone in 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 436
  • $30,097

Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2024? | By Dec 31, 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0135
-0.1236
0.9915
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.016
-0.003
  • Manifold
  • 364
  • 10
  • $19

[Kalshi] Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0029
-0.0551
0.9984
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0029
-0.0555
0.9984
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0029
-0.0551
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0029
-0.0551
0.9984
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.016
+0.003
  • Overall
  • 435
  • 10
  • $30,116
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0022
-0.0480
0.9988
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0082
-0.0896
0.9949
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0022
-0.0480
0.9988
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0326
0.9992

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