Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024?
  • 333
  • 1,635
  • $461,426
These prediction markets ask whether Apple will be the largest company in the world by market capitalization on December 31, 2024. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with "Yes" resolving to Apple being the largest and "No" resolving if it's not. A market close on December 31 is used as the reference point for comparison. The resolution criteria relies on a general agreement among reputable sources. If there's no clear consensus, the market would resolve to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 334
  • 304
  • $987

Which company will be the biggest worldwide by market cap at the end of 2024? | Apple

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4192
-1.0426
0.4782
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3884
-0.9761
0.5174
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3664
-0.9296
0.5462
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0320
0.9995
Relative Score
D-
+0.033
-0.079
-0.042
  • Polymarket
  • 40
  • 1,331
  • $460,438

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0064
-0.0834
0.9962
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0466
-0.2431
0.9641
30 Days Before Close
C
0.1056
-0.3930
0.9010
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0161
0.9999
Relative Score
A
-0.033
+0.079
+0.042
  • Overall
  • 333
  • 1,635
  • $461,426
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2128
-0.5630
0.7372
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2175
-0.6096
0.7408
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2360
-0.6613
0.7236
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0241
0.9997

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