Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform launched in 2020 that allows users to trade on real-world events using cryptocurrency. The site is banned from use in several countries including the US and UK, but these bans are fairly simple to circumvent with VPNs. As such, the platform has a large number of users and very high volume on popular markets.
Market resolutions are determined by a decentralized "optimistic oracle" which incentivises tokenholders to vote on the correct outcome with allowances for disputes or emergency overrides (though some users still intentionally use their voting power to profit). The site also provides rewards for liquidity providers and some negative risk events.
| Category | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Culture | 26 | D- | 0.1734 | B | -0.008 |
| Economics | 16 | D- | 0.1245 | A- | -0.011 |
| Politics | 157 | D- | 0.1627 | C+ | -0.001 |
| Science | 16 | D | 0.0622 | A | -0.025 |
| Sports | 26 | F | 0.2633 | A- | -0.011 |
| Technology | 13 | D- | 0.1534 | C+ | -0.001 |
| Overall | 254 | D- | 0.1649 | B | -0.0047 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=37,567 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=37,567 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi