Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, launched in 2021. The platform allows users to trade on event contracts with real money. Kalshi's unique position as a regulated entity means it maintains strict compliance standards while offering a legitimate way to hedge against real-world events. The platform uses a central limit order book model and emphasizes transparency in market operations.
The platform has a large number of short-duration, high frequency markets for predictions on common events. It generates revenue from fees on market orders and is required to limit individual positions to $25,000 per market.
Category | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Culture | 22 | F | 0.2996 | A- | -0.013 |
Economics | 13 | D | 0.0727 | B+ | -0.008 |
Politics | 88 | D- | 0.1597 | B | -0.006 |
Science | 20 | D | 0.1046 | C- | +0.004 |
Sports | 19 | F | 0.2825 | A- | -0.015 |
Technology | 16 | F | 0.2997 | A- | -0.014 |
Overall | 178 | D- | 0.1901 | B | -0.0075 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=259,570 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=259,570 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi