Platform: Kalshi
  • 259,570
  • $4,059,429,045

Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, launched in 2021. The platform allows users to trade on event contracts with real money. Kalshi's unique position as a regulated entity means it maintains strict compliance standards while offering a legitimate way to hedge against real-world events. The platform uses a central limit order book model and emphasizes transparency in market operations.

The platform has a large number of short-duration, high frequency markets for predictions on common events. It generates revenue from fees on market orders and is required to limit individual positions to $25,000 per market.

Category Markets Midpoint Brier Relative Score
Culture
22
F
0.2996
A-
-0.013
Economics
13
D
0.0727
B+
-0.008
Politics
88
D-
0.1597
B
-0.006
Science
20
D
0.1046
C-
+0.004
Sports
19
F
0.2825
A-
-0.015
Technology
16
F
0.2997
A-
-0.014
Overall
178
D-
0.1901
B
-0.0075

Charts

Calibration Plot

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
0102030405060708090100↑ Resolution0102030405060708090100Prediction (Midpoint) →

Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=259,570 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Accuracy Histogram

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000↑ Count0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0Midpoint Brier score →

Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=259,570 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Top-Performing Questions

  • Resolved YES
  • Category Culture
  • 1,933
  • $644,066
  • Kalshi
  • 151
  • $224,612
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1296
Relative score:
S
-0.177
  • Manifold
  • 128
  • 109
  • $546
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5083
Relative score:
F
+0.159
  • Metaculus
  • 28
  • 65
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5727
Relative score:
F
+0.169
  • Polymarket
  • 21
  • 1,759
  • $418,908
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3136
Relative score:
A-
-0.013
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3810

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityAug2024SepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 44
  • $11,098
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.6561
Relative score:
S
-0.153
  • Manifold
  • 41
  • 99
  • $475
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.8703
Relative score:
F
+0.153
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7632

Probability History

020406080100↑ Probability7Apr1421285May12

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $12,258
Midpoint Brier score:
S
0.0001
Relative score:
S
-0.141
  • Manifold
  • 229
  • 14
  • $1,097
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1879
Relative score:
F
+0.141
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D
0.0940

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 11
  • $527,080
Midpoint Brier score:
D+
0.0400
Relative score:
S
-0.108
  • Manifold
  • 96
  • 81
  • $789
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7783
Relative score:
F
+0.032
  • Polymarket
  • 15
  • 49
  • $26,959
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7396
Relative score:
C-
+0.003
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5193

Probability History

020406080100↑ Probability11Aug18251Sep81522296Oct1320273Nov10

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 3
  • $67,585
Midpoint Brier score:
D
0.0784
Relative score:
S
-0.106
  • Manifold
  • 14
  • 742
  • $7,952
Midpoint Brier score:
B+
0.0022
Relative score:
B
-0.006
  • Metaculus
  • 13
  • 72
Midpoint Brier score:
A
0.0010
Relative score:
D-
+0.021
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D+
0.0272

Probability History

020406080100↑ Probability19Nov2123252729

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 299
  • $68,617
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.2916
Relative score:
S
-0.099
  • Manifold
  • 382
  • 40
  • $6,631
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7002
Relative score:
F
+0.056
  • Metaculus
  • 363
  • 727
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7611
Relative score:
B+
-0.008
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5843

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

  • Resolved YES
  • Category Sports
  • 6
  • $5,711,493
  • Kalshi
  • 12
  • $5,710,765
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1444
Relative score:
S
-0.092
  • Manifold
  • 354
  • 6
  • $728
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3529
Relative score:
F
+0.092
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2486

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJul2024OctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 4
  • $8,020
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3364
Relative score:
S
-0.077
  • Manifold
  • 3
  • 43
  • $120
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7416
Relative score:
F
+0.077
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5390

Probability History

020406080100↑ Probability12 PMOct 512 AMOct 612 PM12 AMOct 712 PM12 AMOct 812 PM

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 226
  • $12,056
Midpoint Brier score:
D+
0.0361
Relative score:
A+
-0.062
  • Manifold
  • 354
  • 204
  • $642
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.2844
Relative score:
F
+0.062
  • Metaculus
  • 374
  • 134
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3061
Relative score:
A
-0.017
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2089

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Resolved YES
  • Category Sports
  • 272
  • $8,833,483
  • Kalshi
  • 95
  • $8,517,254
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7921
Relative score:
A+
-0.058
  • Manifold
  • 365
  • 24
  • $148
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.8555
Relative score:
F
+0.050
  • Polymarket
  • 23
  • 248
  • $316,081
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.6708
Relative score:
A
-0.023
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7728

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJul2024OctJan2025Apr

Source: brier.fyi